The development prospect of China's aluminum alloy industry in 2017 is forecast

2018-08-15 16:51

In 2015, the world's aluminum consumption reached 45.64 million tons, 15.81% less than in 2014, mainly due to the impact of the global economic downturn. Although consumption has declined significantly, it is still huge.

Global aluminum production and consumption showed a temporary downward trend (10,000 tons)

Data source: public data collation

Related report: "2017-2022 China Aluminum Alloy Industry Research and Market Prospect Forecast Report" released by Zhiyan Consulting

In 2016, China's total refined aluminum consumption reached 31.61 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 1.76%. According to the "Thirteenth Five-Year Plan" non-ferrous metal industry plan, China's total aluminum consumption will reach 43 million tons by 2020, and the average annual compound growth rate (CAGR) from 2016 to 2020 will reach 7.24%.

China's refined aluminum production and consumption showed high level of consolidation (thousand tons)

China's traditional aluminum alloy consumption field is daily refined aluminum products and machinery, home appliances and other industries. Since the mid-90s, China's aluminum consumption has begun to accelerate with the growth of the economy, and the growth rate of domestic aluminum demand is about 3 times the GDP growth rate. At present Chinese the average amount of aluminum used is about 10 kg, while the per capita aluminum consumption of the United States, Japan and Germany has reached 35 kg, 33 kg and 32.5 kg respectively, China's per capita aluminum consumption is far lower than the level of developed countries in the world and less than 1/3 of developed countries, which shows that China's aluminum consumption market space is huge.

With the rapid development of urbanization and industrialization in China, it is expected that China's per capita aluminum consumption is expected to continue to expand in the future; At the same time, with the further development of economy and science and technology, the demand for aluminum in nuclear energy, aerospace, transportation, construction and power industries will increase significantly, and aluminum consumption will shift to high-end fields and emerging consumption areas. From the perspective of downstream industry applications, the construction industry is still the largest application field of aluminum in China, accounting for 33%, followed by transportation, electric power, packaging, machinery manufacturing, etc. Taking the United States as an example, transportation is the largest aluminum field, accounting for 39%.

In 2016, the proportion of downstream applications of aluminum in China


High-strength aluminum alloy has the advantages of low density, high strength and good hot working performance, and the plates, extruded profiles, hubs, etc. made of them have a wide range of application prospects in aerospace components. For example, high-strength aluminum alloy thick plate as the main load-bearing component, the proportion of use accounts for 30%-35% of the total aluminum used on the aircraft.

Proportion of aluminum used in aviation


China's aluminum processing industry will continue to maintain a growth trend. In 2016, the actual output of aluminum processing materials in China was about 33 million tons, an increase of 10% over 2015. According to the "13th Five-Year Plan" of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology's non-ferrous metal industry development, the output of aluminum products in 2020 is estimated to be 40 million tons, and the average annual compound growth rate of aluminum processing materials output from 2016 to 2020 will remain at 5.92%.

Aluminum processing material output (10,000 tons)


From 2010 to 2015, China's aluminum production capacity structure was continuously optimized, and the proportion of high-end aluminum continued to expand. In 2010, the total production capacity of aluminum processing in China was about 20.55 million tons, and the ratio of extruded materials, flat rolled products and aluminum foil was about 6:3:1 at that time, and the ratio reached 5:3:2 by the end of 2015. China's new production capacity in 2016/17 is mainly automotive aluminum alloy thick plate and aviation thick plate and strip. In 2015, China's flat-rolled product production capacity was 14 million tons, an increase of 12.2% year-on-year (excluding aluminum foil production, including aluminum foil strip billet), and the capacity utilization rate was 68%, 15% lower than that of industrially developed countries.

In the aluminum extrusion processing industry, there are currently about 700 aluminum extrusion enterprises in China, and the total output of aluminum extrusion materials has increased from 3.579 million tons in 2005 to 14.7 million tons in 2014, an increase of 310.61%. It is expected that in the future, with the continuous development of China's industry, the demand for industrial aluminum in traditional industrial fields and high-end equipment manufacturing industry continues to expand, and the production capacity and output of industrial aluminum in China will continue to break through new highs, at the same time, consumption will also grow rapidly, and high-end aluminum products will become the main growth point of market consumption.

Aluminum extrusion showed steady growth


In 2015, the global aluminum foil production capacity was 4.11 million tons/year, a year-on-year increase of 6.8%, and the growth rate fell by 3.2%. China currently has 35 2000mm wide rolling mills, which can produce almost all varieties, specifications and various uses of aluminum foil products.

Production and sales of aluminum foil in China (kg)